100 Minds

From around the world

James Gilmore

Co-Founder,
Strategic Horizons

Shaker Heights, United States

The wasteful “version 2.0” mentality that incessantly forces obsolescence of “product” will give way to refreshable “platforms” that simply allow for future modification and enhancement.

The Old Testament prophet Amos once said, “I am no prophet, nor am I the son of a prophet; I am but a herdsman and a grower of sycamore trees.”  Similarly, I must share that I am no futurist, nor am I a futurist’s son; I am but a business writer and a provoker of new ideas. In providing my dream of what might or should unfold over the next 100 years, I seek to avoid two missteps: (1) any pessimistic prognostication that might unduly flow from thinking left-to-right from the truly dire economic circumstances in which we presently find ourselves in the year of 2012, and (2) any hyper-optimism that typically characterizes such future-projecting exercises. And let me note that nothing I outline below has any likelihood of emerging should global capitalism collapse — whether from the lack of monetary integrity in our financial markets, the failure of businesses to truly innovate and create new economic value, the public sector excessively draining wealth from the value-creating private sector, or the militant actions of tyrants or terrorists.

Here then are my hopes for the future. Energy production:  the current pursuit of nebulous “sustainability” gives way to practical cost/benefit decision-making in terms of energy consumption; government guesswork and misguided subsidies do not lead to replacing Big Oil with Big Wind or Big Sun (littering our landscapes and waterscapes), but some portfolio of nano-energy (or other-energy) sources emerge from market competition. Food nutrition:  grocery stores will stop selling individually packaged goods and instead charge explicitly for total maximum calories consumed (per week, per month, or per year) on  a subscription basis — and the supply of foodstuffs is delivered via more efficient (and permanent) packaging systems. Consumer durables:  any good not used all the time (by any one party) will be time-shared, resulting in less equipment, fewer cars, and fewer toys being required to support work, travel, and play. Devices will “keep score;” for example, dishwashers will track who loaded or unloaded the machine most recently or more frequently. Consumer electronics: the wasteful “version 2.0” mentality that incessantly forces obsolescence of “product” will give way to refreshable “platforms” that simply allow for future modification and enhancement; built-to-be-replaced wares are themselves replaced by built-to-be-refreshed approaches. Higher education: fewer students matriculate; those that do, do not pay semester-by-semester tuition, but rather pay only upon actual graduation. Drop-out rates plunge as universities have to actually guide real learning. Health care: hospitals no longer operate as inefficient non-profit institutions, and third-party health insurance is no more. Individuals contract directly with for-profit health care providers which no longer charge for drugs and treatments (for sickness), but only for demonstrated outcomes (of wellness).

Bottom-line: The future will see less buying and selling of goods and services—in the form of things made and activities performed—more buying and selling of experiences and transformations—in the form of membership time and personal change.

James Gilmore Bio:

James H. Gilmore wrote The Experience Economy: Work Is Theatre & Every Business a Stage (Harvard Business School Press, 1999), the highly influential book that spawned worldwide attention in experience design and innovation. Tom Peters rightly called it “a brilliant, absolutely original book”; 800-CEO-Read named it one of the “100 Best Business Books of All Time." In 2011, The Experience Economy: Updated Edition was released. IDEO’s Tom Kelley called it “one of the best business books of the twentieth century, now renewed for the challenges of the twenty-first.”

Gilmore’s other book, Authenticity: What Consumers Really Want, (Harvard Business School Press, 2007), outlines how authenticity must be managed as a distinct business discipline if any innovation is to find a receptive audience. In a March 2008 cover story, TIME magazine recognized the significance of Gilmore’s insights on this subject and named it one of “Ten ideas that are changing the world.”

Gilmore is co-founder of Strategic Horizons LLP and a Batten Fellow and Adjunct Lecturer at the Darden Graduate School of Business at the University of Virginia. He is also a Visiting Lecturer in Apologetics at Westminster Seminary California, where he teaches a course in cultural hermeneutics.